Clearview Portfolio Consulting October Market Recap
Key Points:
- The US economy has remained strong this year with Q3 GDP moving 2.8% higher.
- Global stocks fell in October but are still having a strong year and outpacing the returns in bonds.
- Bond prices fell on increased Treasury yields. Higher yields have resulted in higher mortgage rates in the unbalanced real estate market.
The US economy continued its resilience with gross domestic product (GDP) advancing 2.8% in the third quarter. Strong consumer spending has propelled the US growth engine forward. We now head into the final months of the year with a tight and volatile presidential race. Investors will be looking for future tax policy as the 2017 Tax Cuts are set to expire at the end of next year. Despite presidential campaign promises, the makeup of Congress will determine tax and spending programs. The mounting federal deficit and debt, which neither candidate seems to want to address, looms large over any future tax and spending policy.
Stocks slipped during the month as US payrolls came in weaker than expected. However, we had two destructive hurricanes and a strike at Boeing during the month. The S&P500 dipped 0.91% in October but is still up almost 21% for the year when accounting for dividends. Small caps continue to trail large cap companies despite easing from the Federal Reserve and the strong economy. The Russell 2000 Index is up 9.6% for the year. Financials (+2.7%), communication services (+1.9%) and energy (+0.8%) were the only positive sectors of the market. Health care stocks were hit the hardest in October, dropping 4.6% as big drug manufacturers cut their forward guidance. International stocks fell during the month as the global growth outlook dampened among continued fighting in the Middle East and Ukraine, along with the prospects of tariffs on exported goods into the United States.
The 10-year Treasury yield rose during the month, as inflation expectations moved higher. Strong economic growth may cause inflation to stay higher for longer and limit the Fed’s ability to aggressively bring down rates. The increase in longer term yields pushed mortgage rates higher, despite the Fed’s goal to bring rates down. The US housing market has an imbalance in supply and demand. Due to the lack of supply, higher home and rental prices may keep inflation elevated and away from the Fed’s 2% target. The jump in long rates hurt existing bonds and pushed the Bloomberg US Aggregate Bond Index to fall 2.48% in October. continued escalation in the Middle East, increased demand from China from stimulus, rising energy prices and strikes along US ports. The US election seems to be a tight race, adding additional uncertainty to the markets. Heightened volatility in stocks and bonds for the rest of the year should be expected.her than longer ones. Cash investors are enjoying higher yields, but for how long remains uncertain.
Sources: Morningstar Direct, T.Rowe Price, JPMorgan, Wall Street Journal